Nuclear and renewable resources

The nuclear renaissance, which has been long anticipated as early as 2024, gained significant momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October-December). One could argue that the nuclear movement has reached a tipping point, which has been built by sentiment change toward nuclear energy and shifts in global nuclear implementation policies. Several countries have announced either new nuclear plant construction starts, or in the case of Japan, several restarts of reactors that have been shut down since the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Key achievements focused on reactor restarts, regulatory approvals, new reactor deployments, and international commitments to expand nuclear capacity. These developments were driven by rising energy demands from AI and data centers, energy security concerns, increasing uranium supply/demand deficits, and climate goals. Below are some of the major accomplishments in 4Q, organized by bullet points, of the major accomplishments, categorized for clarity:

• Palisades Nuclear Plant in Michigan restart. The U.S. Department of Energy approving a $57 million loan disbursement in November 2025. This marks the first recommissioned U.S. reactor, supported by a $1.52 billion federal loan under the Inflation Reduction Act.
• Reactor restarts and upgrades. Three Mile Island Unit 1 (renamed Crane Clean Energy Center) progressed with a $1 billion federal loan and a 20-year, 835 MW supply contract with Microsoft, aiming for operational restart by late 2025 or early 2026.
• Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Advanced Technologies. Interest and funding for advanced reactors, including SMRs, continued to strengthen in the 4^th quarter. The US program for advanced reactor development, as well as efforts in the UK, Canada, and India, continued to grow. Canada's first commercial SMR power plant is planned to be constructed in Darlington, Ontario by 2030, which is also expected to be the first operational commercial SMR facility in North America and among OECD countries.
• Nuclear Executive Orders.This was the most important event that brought nuclear renaissance into the headlines during 2025, and particularly in Q4. Although the signing of these Executive Orders occurred earlier in the Q2 2025, most were actually implemented in Q4. The U.S. Trump administration's executive orders (issued earlier but implemented in Q4) committed to quadrupling nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050, with $80 billion allocated for 10 new large-scale reactors by 2030. The four EOs were the following:
  • Deploying advanced nuclear reactor technologies for national security
  • Ordering the reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
  • Reforming nuclear reactor testing at the Department of Energy
  • Reinvigorating the nuclear industrial base
• Nuclear Fuel Chain DPA Consortium – the Nuclear Fuel Chain Defense Production Act (DPA) Consortium was created to incentivize buy-in from companies in the US to expand capacity of domestic US nuclear fuel production at all stages: mining and milling, conversion, enrichment, deconversion, fabrication, recycling and reprocessing. The inaugural meeting was held in Q4, and set the stage for companies to enter into agreements with the US government and Department of Energy (DOE) for uranium supplier off-take deals and expansion support in all phases of the nuclear fuel cycle.

Outlook for 2026

The Q4 2025 accomplishments set a strong foundation for 2026, accelerating the nuclear sector's growth due to sharply increase AI-driven electricity demands and geopolitical energy security needs. This will translate into bullish dynamics for uranium markets and increasingly positive global sentiment attitudes toward nuclear power. We see a bullish outlook for the uranium sector for the remainder of 2026 and beyond, given the following factors:

1. Uranium Price. As of January 2026, uranium spot prices are around $85 per pound, up 16% year-over-year, with long-term contracts nearing $86-100 per pound—the highest since 2008. On January 23, 2026, spot uranium prices reached $88/pound, an 18 months high. Analysts expect prices to rise significantly, with Bank of America forecasting $135 per pound by year-end (a 50%+ increase from current levels), Goldman Sachs projecting $100+/lb. by mid-2026, and Sprott Asset Management maintaining a bullish long-term view with targets of $120+. However, even at 116M lbs. LT contracting levels (even though this may be a low number), this is well below the replacement rate of 180M lbs./year—the rate required to replace the uranium pounds consumed from inventory and secondary sources. The LT market is now clearly a "sellers" market, with price floors close to the spot market level in 80's, and ceilings of $130-150/lb. In addition, more restrictive bans on Russian uranium may push LT contracting prices higher.
2. Strategic Demand vs Supply Fragility. The spike in uranium price in January 2026 reflects its position as one of strongest performing commodities within the current cycle in the market. The price of uranium has increased by more than 145% in the last ten years. The latest rally was formed after reaching a low of $64.25/lb. in 2025. This latest rally strength reflects resilience towards short term volatility and growing confidence in a strategic role for uranium in the energy transition. On the supply side, it is important to note that 60% of global uranium is mined by only two producers: Kazatomprom at 40% and Cameco at roughly 20%. By 2035, these two major producers will have their Tier 1 mines depleted by 80%. Kazatomprom CEO Meirzhan Yussupov and top executives have warned that a structural uranium deficit is expected by the mid-2030s, necessitating a massive increase in production capability equivalent to finding "another Kazakhstan" to meet rising demand. The implication for 2026 is that a widening structural supply-demand mismatch will intensify, with U.S. funding ($2.7 billion for enrichment and supply chain support) and new mines (mostly brownfield restarts) attempting to bridge gaps, but delays will persist. This will favor a uranium "price reset" to $125-150 per pound to incentivize new production. We expect this to occur by the end of 2026.
3. World Sentiment Toward Nuclear. Shifting public opinion support for nuclear power has risen globally, with U.S. adults favoring it at 57-60% (up from 43% in 2016). This favorability rating holds not only for the US, but for the global case as well. A December 2025 poll showed 70% support among some demographics globally, especially the younger populations, which view nuclear as essential for energy security and economic growth. This is a stark contrast from 5 years ago, when the younger population favored renewable energy over nuclear energy.

Summary

The overall outlook for nuclear energy and uranium in 2026 and beyond remains strongly positive and bullish, driven by accelerating global demand for clean, reliable baseload power for energy transitions, AI/data center growth, reactor life extensions, and new builds (with ~70 reactors under construction and many more planned, particularly in Asia). The IAEA and World Nuclear Association project significant nuclear capacity expansion through 2050, with uranium demand expected to rise notably (e.g., from ~69,000 metric tonnes Uranium in 2025 onward in reference scenarios). Supply remains constrained in the near term due to production challenges, geopolitical factors, and delayed project ramps, creating a structural deficit that supports higher uranium prices—current spot levels hover around $80–88/lb. (as of early 2026), with forecasts from analysts like Bank of America eyeing $130/lb. by late 2026, and ranges of $80–150+ or higher in optimistic views from Sprott, UxC, and others.